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If you think weather forecasting is looking at the sky and trying to figure out if it’s going to rain or be sunny today, think again. Modern weather forecasting is based on mathematical modelling and requires knowledge of mathematics, physics, and programming. Weather affects not only our decisions about what to wear but has an impact on transport, food production, supply chains, and many other aspects of our daily lives. A good weather forecast can save lives, a bad one puts some at risk. How much do you know about the process of preparing a weather forecast?

Jeżeli wydaje ci się, że prognozowanie pogody polega na spoglądaniu w niebo i próbach odgadnięcia, czy będzie padać deszcz, czy raczej będzie świecić słońce – to się mylisz. Współczesne przewidywanie pogody opiera się bowiem na modelowaniu matematycznym, wymaga znajomości metod numerycznych, fizyki i programowania.

Pogoda wiąże się nie tylko z naszymi decyzjami o tym, w co się ubrać, wpływa również na transport, produkcję żywności, łańcuchy dostaw i wiele innych aspektów naszej codzienności. Jej trafne przewidywanie może uratować życie, a złe – narazić na niebezpieczeństwo. Czy wiesz, jak przygotowuje się prognozę pogody?

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Gathering meteorological data requires highly specialised equipment
Zbieranie danych meteorologicznych wymaga specjalistycznej aparatury
Źródło: dostępny w internecie: www.freepik.com [dostęp 20.04.2022], domena publiczna.
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Exercise 1
There are many idioms in English which use weather words. Can you complete the gaps with the idioms below? There are three words which do not fit any gap. 1. I cannot take any more tasks this week; I am really 1. snowed, 2. black, 3. rainbow, 4. breeze, 5. whirl, 6. lightning, 7. flooded, 8. icebreakers, 9. rain under with work.
2. I liked the 1. snowed, 2. black, 3. rainbow, 4. breeze, 5. whirl, 6. lightning, 7. flooded, 8. icebreakers, 9. rain our teacher used at the beginning of the school year to help us get to know one another and integrate.
3. I broke my leg skiing here last year, but I know 1. snowed, 2. black, 3. rainbow, 4. breeze, 5. whirl, 6. lightning, 7. flooded, 8. icebreakers, 9. rain never strikes in the same place twice and it will be ok this year.
4. It took me a while to understand that my dreams about becoming an astronaut were just chasing a 1. snowed, 2. black, 3. rainbow, 4. breeze, 5. whirl, 6. lightning, 7. flooded, 8. icebreakers, 9. rain.
5. Thank you for your invitation, but I will take a 1. snowed, 2. black, 3. rainbow, 4. breeze, 5. whirl, 6. lightning, 7. flooded, 8. icebreakers, 9. rain check this time.
6. I needn’t have worried – the test was simply a 1. snowed, 2. black, 3. rainbow, 4. breeze, 5. whirl, 6. lightning, 7. flooded, 8. icebreakers, 9. rain.
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.

Study the text and do the exercises below.

How are Weather Forecasts Made?

How are Weather Forecasts Made?
Anna Posyniak‑Dutka How are Weather Forecasts Made?

In the times of climate change and extreme weather phenomenaextreme weather phenomena [extreme weather phenomenon]extreme weather phenomena, a weather forecastweather forecastweather forecast can make the difference between life and death. Severe weather conditionssevere weather conditions Severe weather conditions can cost the local economy large sums of money, so it is the meteorologists’ job to issue alertsissue alerts [issue an alert]issue alerts for people to be prepared.

Weather forecasting starts with taking measurementstaking measurements [take measurement]taking measurements and making observationsmaking observations [make observation]making observations of the weather which has already happened. Nowadays, scientists use satellites, balloons, land and ship‑based instruments, buoysbuoys [buoy]buoys, and different kinds of aircraft to collect as much and as accurate data as possible. 1.1 ___ Parameters such as temperature, wind speed and direction, and humidityhumidityhumidity are measured and recorded. For example, radiationradiationradiation from Earth’s surface is detected and measured by satellites orbitingorbiting [orbit]orbiting the planet. Balloons and aircraft fly through different layers of the atmospherelayers of the atmosphere [layer of the atmosphere]layers of the atmosphere collecting data on their way up and down. It must be pointed out that observations are carried out 24/7, 365 days of the year.

Next, all collected information is entered into supercomputersentered into supercomputers [enter into a supercomputer]entered into supercomputers which have very high computing powerscomputing powercomputing powers. A large number of mathematical calculations is performed on the basis of the data regarding all aspects of atmospheric conditions. 1.2 ___ Because the atmosphere has a rather chaotic nature, every new developmentdevelopmentdevelopment can affect the whole model. It explains why weather forecasts are not always fully accurateaccurateaccurate. It’s enough to miss something or to add it to a model too late and people will receive a misleadingmisleadingmisleading forecast.

Despite the fact that the computing power of modern machines is truly impressive, human participation in the forecasting process is still necessary. Computers don’t have the experience and expertise which allow forecastersforecasters [forecaster]forecasters to compare computer‑generated predictionscomputer‑generated predictions [computer‑generated prediction]computer‑generated predictions against actual observations. By doing so, people can react quickly and adjust forecasts to make them as up‑to‑dateup‑to‑dateup‑to‑date as possible. What is more, forecasters perform risk assessmentperform risk assessmentperform risk assessment and prepare forecasts customisedcustomised [customise]customised for different groups of people. 1.3 ___

How accurate are weather forecasts nowadays? Their reliabilityreliabilityreliability is actually also measured and the results show that there has been an upward trendupward trendupward trend. As the British Met Office reports, six out of seven forecasts done by them are accurate. Their four‑day forecasts are now as accurate as one‑day forecasts were three decades ago. 1.4___ However, some people say that checking weather forecasts doesn’t make sense as predictions for the same region, but done by different Met Offices, sometimes varyvaryvary significantly. The fact that Met Offices around the world use slightly different computer programmes to create weather models results in different forecasts for the same regions.

As weather forecasters state, it’s their duty to provide various groups of people with the most accurate weather information possible. 1.5___ In many countries authoritiesauthorities [authority]authorities work closely with Met Offices to put in placeput in placeput in place special warning services which inform people by means of text messages sent directly to their phones about possibly dangerous weather conditions. Weather forecasting nowadays is a vital part of strategic planningstrategic planningstrategic planning at the individual, local, nationwide, and global scale.

1 Źródło: Anna Posyniak‑Dutka, licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.
1
Exercise 2
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Read the text about weather forecasts. Five sentences have been removed from the text. Complete the gaps 1.1-1.5 with the correct sentences. There are two more sentences which do not fit any gaps. 1.1 1. Unfortunately, long-term forecasts are less accurate than they were some years ago., 2. Some people accuse forecasters of publishing only pessimistic information., 3. The computing power of a device decides how much information can be processed and how fast it can be done., 4. On the basis of that, people are able to make informed decisions when it comes to their short or long-term plans., 5. Each of these instruments has a different function and gathers information about different sections of the Earth’s atmosphere., 6. It’s the result of better measurement instruments, more observations, and faster computers we use nowadays., 7. The general public may be interested in slightly different aspects of the weather than, for example, farmers or plane pilots.
1.2 1. Unfortunately, long-term forecasts are less accurate than they were some years ago., 2. Some people accuse forecasters of publishing only pessimistic information., 3. The computing power of a device decides how much information can be processed and how fast it can be done., 4. On the basis of that, people are able to make informed decisions when it comes to their short or long-term plans., 5. Each of these instruments has a different function and gathers information about different sections of the Earth’s atmosphere., 6. It’s the result of better measurement instruments, more observations, and faster computers we use nowadays., 7. The general public may be interested in slightly different aspects of the weather than, for example, farmers or plane pilots.
1.3 1. Unfortunately, long-term forecasts are less accurate than they were some years ago., 2. Some people accuse forecasters of publishing only pessimistic information., 3. The computing power of a device decides how much information can be processed and how fast it can be done., 4. On the basis of that, people are able to make informed decisions when it comes to their short or long-term plans., 5. Each of these instruments has a different function and gathers information about different sections of the Earth’s atmosphere., 6. It’s the result of better measurement instruments, more observations, and faster computers we use nowadays., 7. The general public may be interested in slightly different aspects of the weather than, for example, farmers or plane pilots.
1.4 1. Unfortunately, long-term forecasts are less accurate than they were some years ago., 2. Some people accuse forecasters of publishing only pessimistic information., 3. The computing power of a device decides how much information can be processed and how fast it can be done., 4. On the basis of that, people are able to make informed decisions when it comes to their short or long-term plans., 5. Each of these instruments has a different function and gathers information about different sections of the Earth’s atmosphere., 6. It’s the result of better measurement instruments, more observations, and faster computers we use nowadays., 7. The general public may be interested in slightly different aspects of the weather than, for example, farmers or plane pilots.
1.5 1. Unfortunately, long-term forecasts are less accurate than they were some years ago., 2. Some people accuse forecasters of publishing only pessimistic information., 3. The computing power of a device decides how much information can be processed and how fast it can be done., 4. On the basis of that, people are able to make informed decisions when it comes to their short or long-term plans., 5. Each of these instruments has a different function and gathers information about different sections of the Earth’s atmosphere., 6. It’s the result of better measurement instruments, more observations, and faster computers we use nowadays., 7. The general public may be interested in slightly different aspects of the weather than, for example, farmers or plane pilots.
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.
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Exercise 3
Put the words and expressions into two categories. 1. Scientific devices used for gathering data about weather: Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. humidity, 2. buoys, 3. land and ship-based instruments, 4. temperature, 5. aircraft, 6. satellites, 7. wind direction, 8. wind speed, 9. balloons 2. Parameters observed in the weather forecasting process: Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. humidity, 2. buoys, 3. land and ship-based instruments, 4. temperature, 5. aircraft, 6. satellites, 7. wind direction, 8. wind speed, 9. balloons
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.
Exercise 4
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Match the definitions below with the correct words or phrases from the text. an announcement which presents predicted atmospheric conditions for a given time and location Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. upward trend, 2. radiation, 3. issue alerts, 4. buoy, 5. weather forecast, 6. forecasters to announce warnings Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. upward trend, 2. radiation, 3. issue alerts, 4. buoy, 5. weather forecast, 6. forecasters an object floating on the surface of water and anchored in a given location, used as a navigation mark or for scientific purposes Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. upward trend, 2. radiation, 3. issue alerts, 4. buoy, 5. weather forecast, 6. forecasters the emission of energy Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. upward trend, 2. radiation, 3. issue alerts, 4. buoy, 5. weather forecast, 6. forecasters meteorologists who specialise in preparing special announcements about atmospheric conditions Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. upward trend, 2. radiation, 3. issue alerts, 4. buoy, 5. weather forecast, 6. forecasters a tendency showing growth or improvement Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. upward trend, 2. radiation, 3. issue alerts, 4. buoy, 5. weather forecast, 6. forecasters
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.
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Exercise 5
Put the stages of creating weather forecasts in the order they are described in the text. Elementy do uszeregowania: 1. performing mathematical calculations by supercomputers, 2. entering collected data into supercomputers, 3. taking measurements and making observations of atmospheric conditions, 4. customising forecasts for different groups of people, 5. adjusting computer-generated forecasts by humans, 6. performing risk assessment
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.
Exercise 6

The picture below shows the TV weather forecast. Do you watch TV weather forecasts? Why? Why not? Answer the question in 4–5 sentences.

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Źródło: dostępny w internecie: www.freepik.com [dostęp 20.04.2022], domena publiczna.
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(Uzupełnij).
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.

Słownik

accurate
accurate

/ ˈækjərət /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

dokładany/dokładna

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
authorities [authority]
authorities [authority]

/ ɔːˈthetaɒrətiz / / ɔːˈthetaɒrəti /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

władze [władza]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
blizzard
blizzard

/ ˈblɪzəd /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

burza śnieżna (a storm with strong winds and heavy snowfall)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
buoys [buoy]
buoys [buoy]

/ bɔɪz / / bɔɪ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

boje [boja] (an anchored floating object that serves as a navigation mark or can be used for installing measurement instruments)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
computer‑generated predictions [computer‑generated prediction]
computer‑generated predictions [computer‑generated prediction]

/ kəmˈpjuːtə ˈdʒenəreɪtɪd prɪˈdɪkʃn̩z / / kəmˈpjuːtə ˈdʒenəreɪtɪd prɪˈdɪkʃn̩ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

komputerowo wygenerowane prognozy [komputerowo wygenerowana prognoza]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
computing power
computing power

/ kəmˈpjuːtɪŋ ˈpaʊə /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

moc obliczeniowa (how much work a computer can do in a unit of time)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
customised [customise]
customised [customise]

/ ˈkʌstəˌmaɪzd / / ˈkʌstəˌmaɪz /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

wykonany/wykonana zgodnie z indywidualnymi potrzebami [wykonać zgodnie z indywidualnymi potrzebami]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
development
development

/ dɪˈveləpmənt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

rozwój (appearance of a new phenomenon)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
drizzle
drizzle

/ ˈdrɪzl̩ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

mżawka (a light rain)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
entered into supercomputers [enter into a supercomputer]
entered into supercomputers [enter into a supercomputer]

/ ˈentəd ˈɪntə ˈsuːpəkəmpjuːtəz / / ˈentər ˈɪntə ə ˈsuːpəkəmpjuːtə /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

wprowadzany/wprowadzana do superkomputerów [wprowadzić do superkomputera]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
extreme weather phenomena [extreme weather phenomenon]
extreme weather phenomena [extreme weather phenomenon]

/ ɪkˈstriːm ˈweðə fɪˈnɒmɪnə / / ɪkˈstriːm ˈweðə fɪˈnɒmɪnən /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

ekstremalne zjawiska pogodowe [ekstremalne zjawisko pogodowe] (natural events such as rain or storms, but much more powerful and destructive than usual)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
forecasters [forecaster]
forecasters [forecaster]

/ ˈfɔːkɑːstəz / / ˈfɔːkɑːstə /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

synoptycy/synoptyczki, osoby zajmujące się sporządzaniem prognoz pogody [synoptyk/synoptyczka, osoba zajmująca się sporządzaniem prognoz pogody]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
forewarned is forearmed (proverb)
forewarned is forearmed (proverb)

/ fɔːˈwɔːnd ɪz ˌfɔːˈrɑːmd /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

przezorny zawsze ubezpieczony (przysłowie, dosł. zawczasu ostrzeżony [jest] na czas uzbrojony) (a proverb which says that knowing about something in advance gives you a chance to get ready for it)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
hail
hail

/ heɪl /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

grad (frozen rain)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
humidity
humidity

/ hjuːˈmɪdɪti /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

wilgotność

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
issue alerts [issue an alert]
issue alerts [issue an alert]

/ ˈɪʃuː əˈlɜːts / / ˈɪʃuː ən əˈlɜːt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

wydawać ostrzeżenia [wydać ostrzeżenie]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
layers of the atmosphere [layer of the atmosphere]
layers of the atmosphere [layer of the atmosphere]

/ ˈleɪəz əv ði ˈætməsfɪə / / ˈleɪər əv ði ˈætməsfɪə /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

warstwy atmosfery [warstwa atmosfery] (any of the 5 major parts of the Earth’s atmosphere)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
making observations [make observation]
making observations [make observation]

/ ˈmeɪkɪŋ ˌɒbzəˈveɪʃn̩z / / ˈmeɪk ˌɒbzəˈveɪʃn̩ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

dokonywanie obserwacji (l.m.) [dokonać obserwacji (l.p.)]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
misleading
misleading

/ ˌmɪsˈliːdɪŋ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

mylący/myląca

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
orbiting [orbit]
orbiting [orbit]

/ ˈɔːbɪtɪŋ / / ˈɔːbɪt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

krążący/krążąca wokół [krążyć wokół]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
overcast
overcast

/ ˌəʊvəˈkɑːst /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

pochmurno

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
perform risk assessment
perform risk assessment

/ pəˈfɔːm rɪsk əˈsesmənt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

dokonać oceny ryzyka

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
precipitation
precipitation

/ prɪˌsɪpɪˈteɪʃn̩ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

opady (rain, snow, or hail)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
put in place
put in place

/ ˈpʊt ɪn ˈpleɪs /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

wprowadzić

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
radiation
radiation

/ ˌreɪdɪˈeɪʃn̩ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

promieniowanie (emission of energy from a given source)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
reliability
reliability

/ rɪˌlaɪəˈbɪlɪti /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

solidność

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
severe weather conditions
severe weather conditions

/ sɪˈvɪə ˈweðə kənˈdɪʃn̩z /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

trudne warunki pogodowe

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
sleet
sleet

/ sliːt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

deszcz ze śniegiem

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
strategic planning
strategic planning

/ strəˈtiːdʒɪk ˈplænɪŋ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

planowanie strategiczne (a process of establishing goals and planning methods of achieving them)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
sunny intervals [sunny interval]
sunny intervals [sunny interval]

/ ˈsʌni ˈɪntəvl̩z / / ˈsʌni ˈɪntəvl̩ /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

przejaśnienia [przejaśnienie]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
taking measurements [take measurement]
taking measurements [take measurement]

/ ˈteɪkɪŋ ˈmeʒəmənts / / ˈteɪk ˈmeʒəmənt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

robienie pomiarów [robić pomiar]

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
up‑to‑date
up‑to‑date

/ ˌʌp tə ˈdeɪt /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

aktualny/aktualna

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
upward trend
upward trend

/ ˈʌpwəd trend /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

trend zwyżkowy, poprawa (gradual growth or improvement)

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
vary
vary

/ ˈveəri /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

różnić się

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
visibility
visibility

/ ˌvɪzəˈbɪlɪti /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

widzialność

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Nagranie dźwiękowe
weather forecast
weather forecast

/ ˈweðə ˈfɔːkɑːst /

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

prognoza pogody

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Nagranie dźwiękowe

Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY‑SA 3.0

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(Uzupełnij).
Źródło: GroMar Sp. z o.o., licencja: CC BY-SA 3.0.