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Calculating probability of experiments

Source: licencja: CC 0.

Obliczanie prawdopodobieństw zdarzeń losowych

Learning objectives

  • You will learn to calculate probability using the classical model and probability of two‑stage experiments using the probability tree diagrams.

Learning effect

  • You calculate probability using the classical model and probability of two‑stage experiments using the probability tree diagrams.

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nagranie abstraktu

Revise information you already know about probabilityprobabilityprobability. Do the task, applying methods you already know.

Task 1
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nagranie abstraktu

Draw one number from the set of two‑digit numbers made of digits {3, 5, 7}. Write elements of the sample space of elementary events Ω, knowing that digits can be repeated. Calculate the probabilityprobabilityprobability of drawing a number greater than 55.

Task 2
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nagranie abstraktu

Open the interactive illustration that describes the tree diagram methodtree diagram methodtree diagram method and watch it carefully.

There are three blue cardboard pieces and two yellow cardboard pieces on the table. Next to them, there are two boxes. In box A, there is one blue piece and in box B, there is one yellow and four blue pieces. If we take a blue piece from the table, we draw from box A, if yellow – from box B. What is the probability of an event A – that we get two pieces in the same colour?

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Ilustracja interaktywna przedstawia jedną z metod rozwiązywania zadań z prawdopodobieństwa – metodę drzewa. Wybrane elementy zostały oznaczone numerami. Drzewo decyzyjne zaczyna się dwoma odcinkami skierowanymi w dół. Każdy odcinek kończy się narysowanym prostokątem. Nad odcinkiem po lewej stronie zapisano trzy piąte. Nad odcinkiem po prawej stronie zapisano dwie piąte. Ten etap został oznaczony numerem 1. Od prostokąta po lewej stronie odchodzą w dół dwa odcinki, każdy zakończony prostokątem. Nad oboma odcinkami zapisano jedna druga. Od prostokąta po prawej stronie również odchodzą w dół dwa odcinki, każdy zakończony prostokątem. Nad pierwszym z nich zapisano jedna piąta, nad drugim cztery piąte. Ten etap został oznaczony numerem 2. Na numerach widoczne są podpisy. 1. drawing a piece from the table – choosing the box {audio}, 2. drawing a piece from the box {audio}.
Tree diagram method
Source: GroMar, licencja: CC BY 3.0.

P(A)=35·12+25·15=310+225=30100+8100=38100=0,38

Probability of the event A is 0,38.

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nagranie abstraktu

After having completed the exercise, present results of your observations and compare them with the following ones:

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nagranie abstraktu

To calculate the probabilityprobabilityprobability using the tree diagram methodtree diagram methodtree diagram method:

  1. We present outcomes of the experiments using the tree,

  2. We write the probability of choosing each option on each stage of the experimentexperimentexperiment on separate branches,

  3. We mark branches favourable to the description of an event,

  4. We calculate the product of probabilities of events from each stages of marked branches,

  5. We calculate the sum of obtained products.

Do Task 1 again, this time using the tree diagram method. Compare obtained results.

Task 3
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nagranie abstraktu

Do the exercise using the classical definition of probabilityprobabilityprobability.

We roll a symmetric, six‑sided dice two times. Calculate the probability of getting a number not smaller than 4 both times.

Task 4
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nagranie abstraktu

Do the exercise using the tree diagram method.

We roll a symmetric, six‑sided dice two times. Calculate the probability of getting a number not smaller than 4 both times.

Task 5
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nagranie abstraktu

Do the exercise using the tree diagram methodtree diagram methodtree diagram method.

There are five blue beads and two golden beads in a sack. We take out two beads and do not put them back. Calculate the probabilityprobabilityprobability of taking out two beads of the same colour.

Task 6
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nagranie abstraktu

Do the exercise using the tree diagram method.

While flipping a non‑symmetric coin, the probability of getting heads is equal to 23, and tails 13. Calculate the probability of getting at least one heads in two trials.

Task 7

An extra task:

There were three times less winning tickets than empty tickets in the box, during the lottery. The probability of getting one winning ticket and one empty ticket is 45119.

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nagranie abstraktu

To calculate the probabilityprobabilityprobability using the tree diagram methodtree diagram methodtree diagram method:

  1. We present outcomes of the experiments using the tree

  2. We write the probability of choosing each option on each stage of the experimentexperimentexperiment on separate branches

  3. We mark branches favourable to the description of an event

  4. We calculate the product of probabilities of events from each stages of marked branches

  5. We calculate the sum of obtained products

Exercises

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Exercise 1
Wersja alternatywna ćwiczenia: We draw one number twice (and put it back) from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}.
Decide if the following sentences are true. Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. The probability of getting two even numbers is equal to 14., 2. The probability of getting a sum of drawn numbers greater than 15 is equal to 14., 3. The probability of getting a product of drawn numbers less than 5 is equal to 14.
zadanie
Source: GroMar, licencja: CC BY 3.0.
Exercise 2

Kasia takes part in a language contest where the questions can be in English or in French. The choice of language is done by drawing lots. If the chosen language is French, then the probability of Kasia winning the price is equal to 0,5 and if it is English, then the probability is equal to 0,9. What is the probability of Kasia winning the price?

Exercise 3

From the senior year of high school, 85% of all girl and 95% or all boys declared that they will continue education at universities after their final exams. The number of boys is 60% of all senior students. Draw a tree illustrating this experiment and describe it in English. Calculate the probability of an event where a randomly chosen person from this group decides to continue education at university. Write the answer in English.

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Exercise 4
Wersja alternatywna ćwiczenia: Indicate which pairs of expressions or words are translated correctly. Możliwe odpowiedzi: 1. prawdopodobieństwo - probability, 2. doświadczenia losowe - experiment, 3. metoda drzewa - tree diagram method, 4. doświadczenie dwuetapowe - product of probabilities of events from each stage, 5. metoda drzewa - two-stage experiment
zadanie
Source: GroMar, licencja: CC BY 3.0.
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Interaktywna gra, polegająca na łączeniu wyrazów w pary w ciągu jednej minuty. Czas zaczyna upływać wraz z rozpoczęciem gry. Jeden ruch to odkrywanie najpierw jednej potem drugiej karty z wyrazem. Każdy wyraz jest odczytywany. Kolejny ruch to odkrywanie trzeciej i czwartej karty. W ten sposób odsłuchasz wszystkie wyrazy. Nawigacja z poziomu klawiatury za pomocą strzałek, odsłuchiwanie wyrazów enterem lub spacją. Znajdź wszystkie pary wyrazów.
Source: Zespół autorski Politechniki Łódzkiej, licencja: CC BY 3.0.

Glossary

experiment
experiment

doświadczenia losowe

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wymowa w języku angielskim: experiment
probability
probability

prawdopodobieństwo

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wymowa w języku angielskim: probability
product of probabilities of events from each stage
product of probabilities of events from each stage

iloczyn prawdopodobieństw zdarzeń z kolejnych etapów

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wymowa w języku angielskim: product of probabilities of events from each stage
tree diagram method
tree diagram method

metoda drzewa

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wymowa w języku angielskim: tree diagram method
two‑stage experiment
two‑stage experiment

doświadczenie dwuetapowe

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wymowa w języku angielskim: two‑stage experiment

Keywords

experimentexperimentexperiment

probabilityprobabilityprobability

tree diagram methodtree diagram methodtree diagram method